O he mayoral duel between Moedas and Leitão in Lisbon is far from the most interesting in the October 12 elections. In Setúbal, Maria das Dores, a former CDU member who now has the support of the PSD, wants to take the leadership back from the Communists and should succeed in doing so, defeating André Martins. In Sintra, Marco Almeida is trying again for the mayoralty, now that the Socialist Basílio Horta is on his way out. At the same time, in Oeiras and Benfica, the municipalities are more than secure in their leaders. In Cascais, a young independent is trying to take the city council away from the PSD, although this is unlikely. And in Olivais, an independent citizens' movement is coming together to take the council.

In the Lisbon metropolitan area, there are certainties and question marks. Between possible shifts to the right or left and almost guaranteed elections, the region could change next Sunday. The CDU could lose ground on the south bank of the Tagus and, as for Chega, the result it could have in the different town halls and parish councils of the Lisbon metropolitan region is unpredictable. The PS and PSD are contesting some important strongholds, such as Sintra and Lisbon.

From Setúbal to Sintra, from Oeiras to Seixal, passing through Cascais, we cover the territory from north to south of the Tagus, looking for the candidates that most deserve our collective attention, and we give a preview of the electoral scenario after October 12. What doubts are there? And what certainties?

In Setúbal, Maria das Dores is back

We start in Setúbal, Maria das Dores Meira has had her campaign headquarters set up in front of the Town Hall since at least the beginning of the year. The name is not unknown to the people of Setubal. She is a former Communist Party member and was mayor of Sadina between 2006 and 2021, when she reached the term limit set by law. He passed the presidency on to André Martins (CDU), who in 2021 won 34.4% of the vote and five councillors. This year will be different.

Maria das Dores is back and she's going to win. After having tried to take the presidency of Almada from socialist Inês de Medeiros in 2021 (she didn't succeed and remained as an opposition councillor, a position she resigned from in 2024), Maria das Dores wants to win back the Setúbal City Council and is running against the PCP, the party she left in 2024 after more than 40 years of militancy. It will be the return of a historic and controversial figure to the city of Setúbal. If, for some, Maria das Dores was a necessary driving force for development in the municipality, for others she was a communist leader who strayed from the guiding principles of Álvaro Cunhal's party, handing Setúbal over to unbridled tourist and real estate development.

What is certain is that Maria das Dores has a high chance of winning. The independent, who has the unexpected support of the PSD, seems to be the favorite of the people of Setubal according to the polls. However, nothing is won, because the Socialist candidate, Fernando José, who is currently a councillor without portfolio, is very close and there is a technical tie.

The current president, André Martins, is not doing well, coming in fourth place according to the projections. But Maria das Dores's campaign started on time and in full swing - proof of this was the early availability of the website with all the candidates and the full electoral program, something that many other parties and coalitions often don't have ready even a week before the elections.

The CDU hasn't been standing still in Setúbal either. The last year has been particularly intense for André Martins, who has tried to show and do work, with road upgrades, new car parks, investments in public housing (making good use of the PRR), and a commitment to environmental sustainability and urban parks. He ended his term in office when the PS and PSD voted against the 2025 municipal budget at the end of last year, leading to a more restrained government this year.

Since re-election is not likely, the CDU will not be able to continue this work so actively, but it will certainly continue to be part of the political chess in the municipal executive and its legacy will not be forgotten, be it good or bad - the judgment is up to the people of Setubal to make, before, after and also on the 12th.

South of the Tagus more socialist and less communist?

The failure to re-elect André Martins in Setúbal will have political significance. First and foremost, it will mean the loss of an important municipality for the CDU, a coalition that brings together the PCP and the PEV and has candidates all over the country. It will be one less CDU council south of the Tagus. At the moment, the communists and ecologists still have Palmela, Seixal and Sesimbra (all led by the PCP, while Setúbal is in the hands of the CDU with a PEV mayor). Almada, Barreiro and Alcochete switched to the PS in the 2017 municipal elections, and Moita turned in 2021. Will the CDU also lose Palmela, Seixal and Sesimbra next Sunday? Or will it be able to hold on? This is one of the big question marks at the moment and one that will be worth monitoring on election night.

The local councils in the Lisbon metropolitan area are mostly socialist. Since 2021, the PS has governed nine of the 18 city councils that make up the Lisbon metropolitan area. In addition to Almada, Barreiro, Alcochete and Moita, the Socialists govern in Loures, Odivelas, Sintra, Amadora and Vila Franca de Xira. The CDU, as we have seen, leads four municipalities, all south of the Tagus. The PSD has the presidency of three councils: Lisbon, Cascais and Mafra. Oeiras is a unique case in the metropolitan area: it is led by an independent, Isaltino Morais, who used to be PSD. Next Sunday could change this political chess, not least because these local elections represent the end of a cycle in some of these municipalities.

In Cascais, the PSD has long since removed the current mayor, Carlos Carreiras, from the media spotlight and replaced him with his foreseeable successor, Nuno Piteira Lopes. The polls make him an almost certain winner in a municipality where the PSD never seems to have had much interest in launching strong names and where the independent João Maria Jonet doesn't appear to be very well placed in the polls. In Palmela, a local historic, Ana Teresa Vicente (CDU), who governed the municipality for 12 years, wants to succeed the current Mayor, Álvaro Amaro, who is a fellow CDU member but is completing his third and final consecutive term. This in a municipality where the PS is on the prowl and where it already leads the Municipal Assembly. In Sintra, a traditional socialist bastion, there is also an end of the cycle: Basílio Horta is leaving and the PS is betting on Ana Mendes Godinho as his successor. She is well known throughout the country, but has little credibility among Sintra residents, having started her campaign on the streets and on social media very early on.

The Chega threat in Sintra and Marco's third attempt

Sintra is another municipality worth keeping an eye on in these elections. Ana Mendes Godinho, former Minister of Labor, Solidarity and Social Security in António Costa's government, is running against a strong name: Marco Almeida, who will be running for the third time for what is one of the region's main and largest municipalities. In fact, Marco Almeida, who has the support of the PSD, is a well-known face to the people of Sintra. Unlike his main rival, he has made his life in the municipality - not only personally, but also politically. He started out in the parish of Agualva-Cacém, where he both served on the executive and led the PSD caucus; in 2001, he became a councillor in Sintra Câmara, serving as vice-president and taking on various roles, such as education, health and housing. He ran for mayor twice, in 2013 as an independent with the support of the PSD and 2017 with a PSD/CDS coalition, always coming second. Will the third time be the charm?

The polls suggest yes, although nothing is guaranteed. In one of the most recent projections, According to the poll, Marco Almeida is the candidate with the best preparation and the best proposals for the campaign. And as the favorite to place the cross this Sunday: with a distribution of undecided voters, Marco Almeida has 32.1% of voting intentions, in a range that can go from 27.9% to 36.3%; Ana Mendes Godinho's coalition has 30.3% (range 26.2% to 34.4%) and Rita Matias' Chega candidacy has 24.5% (20.7% - 28.3%). According to this barometer, everything is still open and even Chega could be a surprise on the 12th, even though the poll shows that Rita Matias is considered the least prepared candidate.

Marco Almeida's candidacy has several strengths, first and foremost being someone who knows his county. Through social media, Marco has long been appearing in Sintra residents' feeds with concrete proposals and solutions to relatable problems - which the projections confirm. Meanwhile, Ana Mendes Godinho has focused on a campaign based on videos and funny moments. Few ideas, more light and relatable content. Rita Matias, one of the strong names of Chega, which the party chose for one of the largest municipalities in the country, spent the first few months unnoticed. She didn't appear on the streets or in social media feeds talking about Sintra. When she did take to the streets during the campaign, she didn't seem to be having a good time. a big turnout.

However, Sintra seems to be an unknown quantity, while municipalities such as Loures, Odivelas, Vila Franca de Xira and Mafra are not. In Loures, the socialist Ricardo Leão should be re-elected, despite all the controversies with the Talude Militar and the barracks. His main rival is Bruno Nunes, from Chega, a party that Leão is closer to on issues that are usually dear to the electorate on the right, such as immigration, security and the fight against corruption. The AD, which brings together the PSD and CDS, is presenting Nélson Batista, who was a councillor for the Economy and Environment under Ricardo Leão and is therefore seeking re-election. He is not a candidate to take the Socialist's seat.

These are not the first local elections in which Chega is running, but they are the first in which André Ventura's party has a significant national weight and a consolidated electoral base. Even so, it would be a mistake to directly transpose the results of the legislative elections to the local elections: they are elections of a different nature. In the local vote, the choice is more linked to a figure who is recognized for their work in the local area, who solves problems in the neighbourhood and who is accessible. Empathy and proximity are worth more here than the charisma of a media leader. But if we were to make this legislative reading of the municipal elections, Chega would win in Sintra, Vila Franca de Xira, Seixal, Moita, Montijo, Palmela, Sesimbra and Setúbal.

Coincidentally or not, these municipalities coincide with news deserts identified in a recent study. They are also territories that, in general, feel abandoned by the central state and that no longer see themselves in the traditional parties. Perhaps because they lack direct and concrete answers to their day-to-day problems. If this is reflected in these municipal elections, it will be in the increase in the number of Chega councillors on town councils. In several municipalities such as Cascais, Loures, Sintra or Lisbon, Chega could be the second or third most voted political force. On the south bank, Chega is expected to grow in areas such as Seixal, Moita and Palmela.

Back to the question marks. Amadora is another unknown. Vitor Ferreira (PS) is a virtually unknown name, despite being the current mayor. He succeeded Carla Tavares (PS), who left office halfway through after winning a seat in the European Parliament in the 2024 elections. Vitor hasn't had time to make a name for himself, nor does he have the charisma or controversy that could propel him into the limelight. He also lacks a communication machine capable of expanding his presence and giving him greater notoriety among the electorate. Amadora is another municipality worth keeping an eye on, not least because Suzana Garcia appears to be his main rival. A controversial candidate in the style of Ricardo Leão, she has the support of the PSD. She wants to “flatten Cova da Moura” and promises more policies and street safety.

These security promises are not exclusive to Suzana Garcia or the more right-wing candidates. The issue of insecurity has entered the agenda of the municipal elections and almost every campaign promises more police on the streets.

Guaranteed elections and independent candidates

In Almada, Inês de Medeiros is expected to win her third and final term. Barreiro should also remain socialist with Frederico Rosa. In Cascais, Nuno Piteira Lopes will almost certainly be elected, as we have seen. Loures should once again elect Ricardo Leão. In Oeiras, we will also unsurprisingly see Isaltino Morais re-elected for what will be his last term and it is likely that Isaltino will retire in 2029, leaving the question mark over his succession - will we see more of his Vice-President in this next term?

Isaltino Morais, who quit the PSD, is once again presenting himself as an independent, with his movement InvOeiras, which, in addition to running the municipality, should continue to have all the parish councils. Oeiras has shown the virtues of having an independent candidate: Isaltino has presented himself as a politician who responds to his agenda, not to parties, and has managed to work with successive governments, from the PS to the PSD. Isaltino only cares about Oeiras and what is best for the municipality from his perspective.

In the Lisbon metropolitan area, Oeiras is unique in being governed by an independent candidate. Something that in Porto has had a positive result over the last 12 years with Rui Moreira: Moreira, like Isaltino, presented a strong leadership, concerned only and exclusively with his municipality - that is, without national or other ambitions. In Cascais, João Maria Jonet is trying this route in an effort to take the municipality out of the hands of the PSD. The polls put him in third place but he has shown growth: he is behind the PS but ahead of Chega.

Independent candidacies are becoming more common in parish councils. On the Costa da Caparica, in Almada, the More Costa from a group of citizens interested in improving their territory. There is also another civic movement that could be elected on Sunday, the Future of the Coast Movement. In Olivais, in Lisbon, the same thing: Olivais in Action is the name of a movement fighting for the parish where the PS has withdrawn political confidence from the current mayor's team.

The political landscape of the Lisbon metropolitan region could change next Sunday. There are several doubts that remain, which we have left throughout this article. Will Seixal change from the CDU to the PS? How will Chega fare in the municipality? Will Sesimbra and Palmela be able to remain CDU? And will Carnide, Lisbon's only communist parish, remain CDU? In Sintra, will Marco Almeida (PSD) or Ana Mendes Godinho (PS) win? Or will Chega be able to fly its flag in this municipality? How will Chega grow, especially in the parishes? And in Lisbon, will Carlos Moedas be re-elected?

We'll know the answers on the 12th.